There’s a fundamental tradeoff at work here:

1. Intelligence allows us to at least potentially progress faster
2. Experience allows us to avoid making mistakes as we make progress

Thus a bright inexperienced person may make fast progress but they’re much more likely to make mistakes which will slow them down. In contrast the experienced person may make slower progress but fewer mistakes. Classic hare and tortoise. Who wins?

The nature of software is such that the mistakes we make can take a long time to manifest and when they do, they cost us big time. Thus:

1. Mistakes don’t result in short-term localized damage rather they are far more disruptive with long-term, difficult to clean up damage
2. The time between the root cause of the problem and it’s costly manifestation is large.

It follows that for our intelligence to count we must be able to see sufficiently far ahead to spot our mistakes coming before they get out of hand. Is this achievable? I think software history says it’s not and thus experience is our only tool for understanding root causes and spotting the early signs of an approaching asteroid.

I reckon there’s a lot to be said for the old tradition of master craftsmen handing down their knowledge and experience to apprentices…. (and perhaps the old dogs can learn a few new tricks along the way).

Technorati Tags: process, software, technology

This should be good…..